The housing market experienced more volatility last week, with housing inventory dropping as mortgage rates moved higher.
Here is a quick rundown from last week:
However, since 2020, this hasn’t been the case — inventory has tended to bottom out a little later in the year. In 2021, inventory bottomed out in April, and in 2022 inventory bottomed out in March.
In the last two weeks, housing inventory has been declining significantly and I hope we are coming closer to the bottom of the seasonal inventory decline. Unfortunately, last week we saw a bigger decline in inventory than the previous week, as units fell by 13,238 according to Altos Research. So I am crossing my fingers that we are getting closer to the end of the seasonal inventory decline because the last thing we want to see is bidding wars again, especially with demand working from much lower levels than what we saw in 2020/2021, and the early months of 2022. The positive aspect is that inventory is still higher than last year. Weekly inventory change (Feb. 3-Feb. 10): Fell From 456,990 to 443,416 Same week last year (Feb. 4-Feb. 11): Fell from 255,662 to 249,161 Because I could see that housing demographics were going to be good in the years 2020-2024, I really didn’t want to see inventory break to all-time lows during this period. This reality created my fear of home prices overheating, which they did, and once mortgage rates rose, the housing market took an extreme affordability hit. Last year, we had a historical dive in housing demand and didn’t get much inventory. Unfortunately, we have a good shot of the next existing home sales report showing even lower inventory levels than the 970,000 level we are dealing with today. This means 2022 and 2023 are the only times in recent history where the NAR active listing data is under 1 million. 10-year yield and mortgage rates In my 2023 forecast, if the economy stayed firm my 10-year yield range was between 3.21% and 4.25%, equating to mortgage rates staying in a range of 5.75% to 7.25%. For some time now, I have discussed how it would be hard to break under 3.42% with follow-through bond buying, meaning mortgage rates would fall further. The market made a few attempts to break that level, but now bond yields have reversed higher. The question this week with the CPI report data being released, is whether we will see a W forming in this chart, which would mean bond yields head back to 4.25%, or whether the downtrend continues. Over time, the growth rate of inflation will cool down once rents get accounted for in a more real-time fashion. Also, part of the 2023 forecast is that if the labor market breaks, the 10-year yield could get to 2.72%, which would mean mortgage rates in the low 5% range. And if the spreads get better, we could even have a 4-handle on mortgage rates. For now, though, the labor market is still solid. The week ahead This will be an exciting week for economic data, bonds and housing. First and most important, this week’s purchase application data is vital. It will be the first apps data amid a half a percentage move higher in mortgage rates, and the next few weeks will be critical, too, if rates stay at 6.50% or head higher. Remember, you should prioritize numbers over people; if the tracker data goes negative, you go with data rather than a personal belief.
The big move for rates should be the Consumer Price Index report this week. If it’s hotter than expected, we could see bonds act negatively to that report. Also, this week we have jobless claims, retail sales, Producer Price Index inflation, the homebuilders’ confidence survey, housing starts and the Leading Economic Index! It’s going to be a busy week with economic data that can move the bond market and mortgage rates. One thing is certain from the data: mortgage rates heading lower, even to just 5.99%, shifted the housing market, which is something to remember as we go forward. Related Mortgage rates have gone wild, so what’s next for housing? September 27, 2026 In “Housing Market” Housing market faces headwinds as mortgage rates move above 7% September 12, 2026 In “Housing Market” Housing year-over-year comps need context for the rest of 2026 September 5, 2026 In “Housing Market”
