Last week’s housing inventory data shows we still haven’t seen the traditional spring increase in inventory.
Last week was relatively calm for the housing market after the fiasco of the banking crisis. Housing demand grew and inventory levels fell again while mortgage rates rose.
Today, even though sales were trending at 2007 levels, we are at 980,000 total active listings per the last existing home sales. Inventory is incredibly tight.
New listing data fell last week and is still trending at all-time lows in 2023. This trend of lower new listing growth has been here for some time with no significant reversal in the data line. Unlike 2021-2022, which were trending similarly year over year, the last few weeks in 2023 have created a noticeable gap, as the chart below shows. Here are some weekly numbers for you to see the difference in new listings: 2021: 59,908 2022: 56,774 2023: 49,234 Compare those to previous years: 2015: 79,706 2016: 70,141 2017: 87,639 As you can see from the data above, homeowners aren’t rushing to sell because, as I have always talked about, primary residence homeowners don’t act like leveraged stock traders, nor are they are afraid of life like the crazy housing crash YouTube people. That unwillingness to sell hampers inventory even further. Purchase application data One of the most improved housing market data lines since Nov. 9, 2022, is purchase application data. This explains why the most recent existing home sales report had one of the most significant month-to-month sales prints ever. We have had three consecutive rising pending home sales reports as well. Purchase application data was up +2% week to week in the fourth straight week of gains. The index was down -35% year over year, which is a reminder that the year-over-year comps will get easier, especially in the second half of the year. The purchase application data reports have been wild when mortgage rates have gone up or down. Traditionally, we wouldn’t have this volatility in this data line but 2022 was a historic dive. When mortgage rates went from 5.99% to 7.10%, we had three negative prints, bringing this index to levels last seen in 1995. However, we have stabilized the data with four straight weeks of positive prints. Remember, this data line looks out 30-90 days before it hits the sales data. Also, the seasonality of this data line is almost over. I typically put more weight on this data line from the second week of January to the first week of May, since traditionally total volumes always fall after May. We have had some odd economic data in housing due to COVID-19 and the rate shocks that have facilitated some crazy moves. However, history has been steady with the seasonality of purchase apps before all this drama, and hopefully, we will get back to normal sooner than later. The week ahead Jobs, jobs and more jobs data! We have four jobs reports coming up this week: JOLTS data, ADP jobs report, weekly jobless claims, and jobs Friday as well. If we have any softening in the jobs data and wage growth, that will be better for mortgage rates. Last week, I was on CNBC talking about how the Federal Reserve‘s focus on creating a job-loss recession isn’t the most effective way of dealing with inflation.They need to endure at this stage because we have seen the growth rate of inflation fall and wage growth cool down — all with a labor market still tight.
The Fed trying to force a job-loss recession to make their job easier because they believe it’s the 1970s again isn’t an effective policy since we aren’t in a 1970s economy. Also, over the weekend, OPEC announced a production cut, sending oil prices higher Sunday evening and the 10-year yield higher by a few basis points. Already Monday morning, with a weaker manufacturing economic report print, the 10-year yield is once again testing the key level. The Fed can limit the damage of the recent banking crisis and keep the economy expanding rather than force millions of people to the unemployment line. We will have a nice batch of labor data this week to see where we are today with the state of the U.S. economy. Related Housing market faces headwinds as mortgage rates move above 7% September 12, 2026 In “Housing Market” Mortgage rates have gone wild, so what’s next for housing? September 27, 2026 In “Housing Market” Housing year-over-year comps need context for the rest of 2026 September 5, 2026 In “Housing Market”
